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The EY ITEM Club has cut its GDP growth forecast for both 2018 and 2019 for the second successive quarter. It says this reflects increased uncertainties due to the "elevated risk" of the UK leaving the EU without a deal in March 2019, recent faltering consumer purchasing power, and a clear loss of economic momentum in the eurozone over the first half of 2018 as well as an uncertain global trade outlook.
The CBI/PwC Q3 financial services survey shows a marked decline in optimism across the financial services board. PwC says the deterioration is largely driven by the continued uncertainty around Brexit and the possible impact of a no-deal Brexit on the pound and the market in general.
UK financial services regulation may alter but it won't ease in a post-Brexit world according to a new report from KPMG "The future shape of UK FS regulation: Rule taker or rule maker?".KPMG says that whilst the UK regulators have been explicit that they will not deviate from EU regulatory standards, the UK's departure from the EU leaves considerable scope for divergence. Julie Patterson, Regulatory Insight Centre, KPMG UK, comments: "Achieving a financial services deal seems increasingly unlikely. This may leave considerable scope for regulatory change. "The regulators on both sides have been clear they don't want regulatory arbitrage, but the UK has in the past taken a different path, such as being the only country in the EU27 to ring fence its banks, and that trend will become more common when we are no longer in the EU. I see no sign that the UK regulators' tendency to lead the debate on risk and conduct issues will abate so regulation may become more demanding, not less."
OCO Global, the Belfast-based consultancy specialising in trade and investment policy, finds SMEs optimistic despite Brexit uncertainty. A survey of over 1000 UK SME's found that whilst a third think Brexit could be positive for their business, Europe will remain their key export market and that there's a real need for support and guidance on exporting internationally. OCO intends to build on its survey with launch of the OCO Brexit Conversation, an online space where OCO consultants and industry players will share their insight on how Brexit will change UK business.
London financial services firms plan to move 10,500 jobs out of the UK on "day one" of Brexit, with Dublin and Frankfurt the financial centres most likely to benefit from the UK's departure from the EU, according to hawkish professional services group EY.The EY job tracker, which counts job announcements to the end of November, found that the number of roles likely to be affected had fallen from estimates of 12,500 a year ago — but the jobs lost by Brexit will be not just the "back office" ones initially forecast, but "front office" staff who deal directly with clients, reports The Guardian.